Volatilidade de preços da manga: uma análise no Pólo Petrolina/Juazeiro

Abstract

The fruit culture represents one of the most important segments for Brazilian agribusiness. The production of mango in the Petrolina/Juazeiro area has standed out for generating high rates of economic growth and social development due to the creation of jobs and income, which made possible a change in the economy profile of this region. However, the commerce of fruit has shown oscilations when it comes to returns to the farmers. This study aims to investigate the volatility in the mango price of the Petrolina/Juazeiro area. For this, we used the models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) to characterize and analyze the volatility of the series of daily returns of mango. The research results show that fluctuations in price, whether positive or negative, affect over the fruit value. However the persistence of volatility is minimum, where it dissipates more quickly on the behavior of the series. To better understand price volatility in the agriculture sector is important to help producers to make decisions, making it possible for them to compensate or minimize the side effects of the activity on the income.