Análise da evolução da demanda no transporte coletivo por ônibus em Fortaleza utilizando big data

Abstract

Public transport is an essential mode of transport for a significant part of the population. The current scenario in the demand of public transport is of significant decreasing in big cities. As opportunity, there is a growing availability of data that can help understand this demand. This research proposes to use the available amount of data (smart card, gps and user registration) as a way to analyze the evolution of the demand for transit in Fortaleza. The method is divided into three macro stages: temporal descriptive analysis, in which temporal indicators were analyzed comparing the years 2014 and 2018, in order to understand the demand behavior; spatial descriptive analysis, in an attempt to understand if it is possible to estimate users' boarding from validation data, once like most Brazilian cities, in Fortaleza users does not necessarily validate his card when boarding and such peculiarity should be taken into account before studying the spatiality of demand through validations; and group detection and analysis, performed through clustering techniques, from which we sought to unite different attributes of users' travel patterns in order to characterize each group and compare them, verifying which are the most frequent and sporadic. It was found that the demand for transit is declining in Forteleza, with payment in cash and with smart card being the most affected. In the spatial analysis, it was found that in approximately half of the sampled cases, users usually validate at a distance greater than 2 kilometers from their home, presenting high dispersion from this distance. In the identification of clusters it was possible to notice the presence of more frequent groups and more sporadic groups, as well as groups that presented the most intermediate use throughout the year. In addition, there was a tendency of increasing in the demand of sporadic groups that have intermediate use throughout the year. There is also evidence to believe in the decline of the most captive groups.