Fatores determinantes do valor dos contratos do programa Agricultura de Baixo Carbono (ABC)

Abstract

The increase in concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the Earth's atmosphere is pointed out as the main factor causing climate change. The agricultural sector plays a strategic role in policies to mitigate the effects of global warming, and this sector is the main emitter of GHG. To reduce GHG emissions, Brazil has been developing the Low Carbon Agriculture Program (ABC) with the objective of financing GHG mitigation actions in the agricultural sector. This work intends to describe the distribution of the resources of this program among the Brazilian states since its implementation, and to analyze the factors that may be affecting this distribution. The ABC Program data for the period 2010/2016 were described using the methods and techniques of descriptive statistics. To explain the variability of contract value in the mentioned period, a multiple regression model for stacked data of the log-log type was estimated. The results show that the Center-West, South and Southeast regions have concentrated the number and value of contracts in a considerably larger proportion than those observed in the North and Northeast regions. The variables that significantly affected the value of the contracts in the 2014/16 harvest were the area harvested, the value, the number of contracts performed in that year and the geographic location of the State at the region level.