Previsão da produção de fontes renováveis e não renováveis selecionadas da matriz energética brasileira

Abstract

Due to the expansion of consumption, fossil fuels are still the main source of energy in the world. As they are limited resources, investments in technological development directed to the energy sector are increasingly necessary, as they result in lower energy consumption and the consequent diversification of the national energy matrix. As they are limited resources, investments in technological development directed to the energy sector are increasingly necessary, as they result in lower energy consumption and the consequent diversification of the national energy matrix. The production of the main world energy source is fossilized, namely oil, and still has oligopolized production. That said, the work has the general objective of evaluating the relative composition of the Brazilian Energy Matrix, with regard to the presence of renewable and non-renewable sources for the period 1970-2018, and then, later, to elaborate models for forecasting internal energy production for the years 2019-2030, regarding that time lapse. Indeed, the instability of international oil prices will be considered. Specifically, the work investigated the relative evolution of renewable and non- renewable sources that make up the Brazilian Energy Matrix between the years 1970 and 2018, estimated suitable models in order to provide the forecast for each energy source and also evaluated the possible impacts of the prices of the barrel of oil on energy production restricted to the period from 1970 to 2018 and for the period from 2019 to 2030. The research data are originally extracted from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE), so they are secondary data. In the formation of forecasts, the Box-Jenkins technique was chosen due to its consistent estimates generated by the mathematical and statistical framework in the construction of forecasts based on time series. The results obtained revealed that the relative composition of the Brazilian Energy Matrix went through significant changes during the studied period; the use of oil surpassed the use of firewood in the generation of energy in Brazil, becoming the main source of energy. In turn, the geometric growth rates proved the graphic analysis with oil having the highest rate, 2.8% and firewood with a negative rate of -4.6%. In Brazil, the renewable source that showed the most promise in the generation of energy was sugarcane with a TGC of 1.4% per year. The research also showed that, with the exception of firewood, all energy sources are sensitive in their production to changes in the price levels of a barrel of oil. Indeed, when prices are at intermediate and low levels, domestic production will tend to decline. Finally, the work allowed us to conclude that Brazil is still dependent on fossilized sources for its energy generation, even if it has potential in alternative sources such as sugar cane.