Efeitos da instabilidade pluviométrica sobre a produção de lavouras de sequeiro no semiárido do estado do Ceará: casos de Limoeiro do Norte e Morada Nova

Abstract

The Brazilian Semi-arid is the largest in territory and is also the most populous semi-arid region in the world. Its rainfall is characterized by being irregularly distributed and concentrated in a few months of the year, usually in the first six months. Most of Brazil's semi-arid region is located in the Northeast of the country, where Ceará is the state with the largest participation of municipalities officially recognized as belonging to the ecosystem. The climatic characteristics make it susceptible to the drought phenomenon and desertification, which also has human action inducing. Among the municipalities of Ceará in the semi-arid, stand out for this study Limoeiro do Norte and Morada Nova, located in the Jaguaribe Valley Micro region. The choice of these municipalities is justified by the fact that they are included in the areas subject to desertification (ASD) of Ceará). The research aims to show the evolution of rainfall of Limoeiro do Norte and Morada Nova from 1974 to 2017, characterizing rainfall levels according to their intensity, assessing the instabilities in each of these periods and assess how food crops (beans, cassava and maize) behave in each of these municipalities. Data from IBGE and FUNCEME were used and coefficients of variation (CV) were used to measure the instability / stability of different climate types for the municipalities. It was also used the CV as a measure of instability / stability of land productivity, harvested areas and average crop prices, evaluated within each rainfall period identified in the research.