Análise da previsão pluviométrica a curtíssimo prazo na bacia hidrológica do rio Paraíba do Meio utilizando o modelo WRF

Abstract

This study objective is analyze how the different physical schemes and their combinations influence forecasts of rain in the short term on the River valley Paraíba do Meio. For this purpose, was used a statistical analysis to evaluate the results of precipitations obtained at each of nine different combinations of microphysics and convective schemes, used in the WRF mesoscale model in a horizon of 120 hours. The acquisition of data for validation of the results was obtained at the National Water Agency. Research has shown that the WRF have a tendency in underestimate the rainfall the short term in the Paraíba do Meio River basin. And it offers a greater dexterity in the combination of forecasts using schemes MPL and G3D.