O monitoramento e a avaliação da política industrial brasileira: desafios e perspectivas

Abstract

In Developing Countries, the industrial policy has been reactivated in order to prevent premature deindustrialization, which is the case in Brazil, for it has faced a reduction of GDP industrial share: it represented on average 25% in the seventies, and corresponds currently to 13%. Economic literature on industrial policy is subject of strong controversy. While the orthodox school of liberal view emphasizes no need for active intervention, whether sectoral or systemic, to support strategic sectors of the industry, the heterodox school reaffirms the need for reconstitution of state activism in this sector. While it is unknown whether the motivation lies on strong externalities or the guidelines of a national development project, the fact is that the state competence to monitor and evaluate industrial policy is still recent and incipient. Since the beginning of Lula government in 2002, the Federal Government has developed various policies for the industry. The objective of this study is to describe, analyze and point out the challenges and prospects for evaluation of these policies. It aims to highlight the methodological impasses applied to complex, diffuse policies, as many veto players perform decision-making processes.