Dinâmicas de curto e de longo prazo na indústria da região sul do Brasil

Abstract

This work analyzes the short and long-term dynamics of the industry in the Southern region of Brazil using monthly data from January 1995 to February 2014 and vector error correction models (VEC). The long-term elasticities indicate that increases of 1% in the industrial production of the state of Rio Grande do Sul reverberate positively in 3,12% and 1,71% on the states of Paraná and Santa Catarina, respectively. Adding 1% to the industrial activity of the state of Paraná, a positive effect can be observed on Rio Grande do Sul, of 0,31%, and a negative effect of 0,55% in the state of Santa Catarina. In the same conditions, if the increase occurs in Santa Catarina, there was a decrease of 1,82% in the industrial activity of Paraná and an expansion of 0,58% in the industrial dynamics of Rio Grande do Sul. Therefore, the State of Rio Grande do Sul seems to produce greater effects of agglomeration for the Southern region, while Paraná and Santa Catarina seem to rival each other.