Simulações metodológicas para detectar formação de expectativas e tornar a produção de leite sustentável no Semiárido Cearense

Abstract

Livestock is a historical activity of Ceará State of Brazil, which plays an important role in the socioeconomic development of the Northeast Region participating in the formation of the income of many farmers. It is also an important source of occupation of the labor force in this State. Ceara's economy is strongly influenced by climatic phenomena, and instability in rainfall is a defining important production, affecting crop yields, production levels and the expectations of producers and their productions. However, the growth of the milk production should take place to ensure the sustainability of production, preserving balance between productivity and sustainability, given that livestock is one of the economic activities that cause most environmental impacts. Therefore, studying relationships between milk production, precipitation levels, vulnerabilities related to the situation of water scarcity and sustainability of agricultural production are topics relevant to understanding the difficulties affecting rural communities of Ceará. Thus, this study has the general objective to perform simulations in order to detect the formation of expectations and make the production of milk sustainable in Ceará. The research uses secondary data from the database generated in LabSar Laboratory of Ceará Federal University. It was made up of historical data covering the period from 1974 to 2016. It was built the INSUS (Sustainability Index) to simulate the sustainability of milk production , on the assumption that the herd size should be stabilized at its historical average. Besides that, the study will use the method proposed by Box and Jenkins (1970) to see how milk producers form their expectations in respect to their gross income. The results showed that the sustainable production of milk with stabilized herd is possible, since it promotes genetic and management improvements that increase the productivity per cow. Evidence also suggest that formation of expectations in milk prices and the herd size induced by rainfall affect positively expectations of gross income formation for dairy farmers in Ceará, confirming the hypothesis of this study. The simulations proposed in the research, suggest that would be a non-emission of 67.2 tons of methane gas of 67.2 and an average of 62.60 hectares should no longer be destined for pastures, and should be used to produce forests or fruits.