Uma Análise sobre os aditivos de contratos em obras rodoviárias no Estado do Ceará

Abstract

In roadworks, the occurrence of contractual amendment formalizations, hereby referred to as deviations, is strong evidence of deficiencies in the project and inadequate planning done by the Public Administration. In this study, roadwork contractual amendments in the State of Ceará were analyzed, under a risk management perspective. The methodology was realized through a case study, with a sample of 220 roadwork contracts, completed in the 2008-2015 period, managed by the State Roadworks Department – DER. The data follow an unusual distribution. The documents and files of the projects were obtained in institutional websites, where the project variables were extracted for tabulation and the Spearman coefficient subsidized the measurement of its correlation with the deviations. For the evaluation of the project’s risks, a survey was created to be applied to Works Inspectors. However, its application was made nonviable. The deviations reach 55% of contracts, 45% being cost deviations with an 8.5% rate of overshoot, representing an additional R$231 million. The deadline deviations occur in 34% of contracts, with a 15,7% rate of overshoot, representing an additional 14.050 days. Results indicate a strong correlation among cost deviations and the initial value of the contract, the initial work deadline and estimated value in the public bid, in such a way that, the greater these values, the greater will be the value of the cost amendments. Larger projects show a trend of impacting the values of the deviations more pronouncedly, whereas smaller projects are the ones who impact the percentage of values more. In deadline deviations, the most significant variables are the estimated value in the bid, the percentage and the readjustment value amount, respectively. The cost estimates have not shown to become more precise over the years and the cost underestimation happens more frequently, however, an improvement in deadline estimates was observed. We remark that most projects incur more frequently in increases than in suppressions, indicating asymmetry in cost overshoot. One should note that about 60% of basic project budgets do not have adequate precision margins even to be taken to bid. As to the location of the work, particular attention is drawn to the fact that contracts show a greater tendency to cost and deadline underestimations, especially Maranguape and Sobral, which could be explained by the presence of contracts with more significant values and by the size of the highway network as well as the number of municipalities under its jurisdiction, respectively. As such, Public Administration must improve its governance mechanisms toward one that prioritizes foresight and project development, where risk assessment must be inserted at the heart of manager’s planning for decision making, so as to mitigate contractual amendments.