A evolução do crédito bancário às pessoas físicas no Brasil

Abstract

The total volume of loans in Brazil increased from 24.3% of GDP in January 2004 to 49% of GDP in December 2011. The greater availability of credit to individuals generate effects on the demand in the short term, and for legal entities expand the supply conditions in the long run. The aim of this paper is to analyze recent developments in the operations of payroll, housing loans and car loans in Brazil and its impact on economic activity in the period: 2004 - 2011. The emphasis on individual segment is justified by its unprecedented expansion as well as its importance for the heating of theinternal market, despite the international financial crisis. The study uses logaritimizadas variables for the six time series under analysis: the three-credit, index of economic activity, interest rate Selic rate and exchange rate. The econometric model used for these endogenous variables was the VAR - VEC, according to the Schwarz criterion and stationarity tests, Granger causality and cointegration Johansen. The survey results confirm the expansion and sustainability of credit to the individual segment and identifies variations in economic activity due to impulses in credit lines under study. The interpretations of these results are applicable in the choice of economic policies, considering the productive sectors under analysis, the expected expansion and the macroeconomic variables of the model.