Estudo do risco Fuzzy na concessão de outorga para lançamento de efluentes em rios naturais

Abstract

This research deals with the development of a methodology that combines fuzzy theory with the theory of mass transport, to determine the risk of failure for natural rivers, in awarding grants from effluent discharges. The model consists of solving the diffusion equation, in one dimension, in fuzzy way. Thus, fields of functions each for the concentration are determined in each section of the river, for different times. These concentrations, in the form of membership functions are compared with a membership function for the resistance of the river. This resistance is usually determined by technical standards, according to the class of each water body. The model defines a marginal of security function that is a membership function calculated from the fields of concentrations and the resistance of river. Finally, risk and security can be determined. The results show that this methodology can be a consistent alternative to control release of grant award and thus providing better information for the Management of Water Resources.