http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/73286 2026-06-18T19:30:25Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86805 Título: Desigualdade de renda e crescimento econômico no Nordeste Brasileiro: um estudo quantitativo (2012-2023) Autor(es): Barbosa, Orlei de Oliveira Abstract: This dissertation evaluates the relationship between income distribution inequality and economic development in the states of Northeast Brazil from 2012 to 2023. To estimate the model and test the applicability of the Kuznets relationship in the region, as well as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on income concentration, explanatory variables widely used in the empirical literature are examined. The methodology employed for estimating the proposed model is panel data analysis. The data used in the research were obtained from the Continuous PNAD and the IBGE’s National Accounts System (SNC), and the estimates were carried out using linear regressors through the FGLS method. The empirical results confirm the existence of a Kuznets relationship between growth and inequality in the Northeast region during the period, and that, by 2023, all states were already on the downward-sloping segment of the curve. They also indicate a strong influence of income transfer programs, such as Emergency Aid, in reducing inequality in the region, an effect that was significantly amplified during the pandemic period. Additionally, a positive relationship was found between the average retirement benefit value and the illiteracy rate and the level of inequality, suggesting that increases in this indicator do not necessarily translate into gains in distributive equity. It is expected that the results will provide empirical evidence to support public policies aimed at economic development while ensuring greater social equity in the region. Tipo: Dissertação 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86571 Título: Uma proposta de avaliação da gestão dos recursos próprios das Unidades Federativas do Brasil Autor(es): Coelho Filho, Túlio Madson Arruda Abstract: This dissertation aims to analyze the relative efficiency of Brazilian states in converting financial autonomy and investment effort into accumulated growth of own-source revenue in the period from 2021 to 2024. The study is grounded in the context of Brazilian fiscal federalism, characterized by subnational borrowing restrictions, budget rigidity, and high dependence on intergovernmental transfers, in which the main state taxes — ICMS, IPVA and ITCMD — play a central role in fiscal sustainability. Two indicators are constructed: accumulated growth of own-source revenue and financial autonomy, defined as the ratio between own taxes and current expenditures. The descriptive analysis reveals significant heterogeneity among states and a distinction between cyclical revenue growth and structural capacity to finance public spending. Subsequently, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), BCC model oriented to output, is applied, considering financial autonomy and the share of investment in own revenue as inputs, and accumulated revenue growth as output. The results indicate that six states lie on the efficiency frontier in both estimated specifications, while the remaining states show varying degrees of distance from the frontier, suggesting potential room for revenue expansion given their structural conditions. The findings demonstrate that revenue growth alone does not characterize efficiency, requiring joint analysis of structural fiscal conditions and the ability to convert them into revenue performance. Tipo: Dissertação 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86569 Título: Estratégias setoriais de investimento público para o Ceará Autor(es): Santos, João Carlos Rodrigues dos Abstract: We propose a novel preliminary methodology to optimize sectoral public investment strategies in Ceará. The approach utilizes the state’s MIPR/CE and incorporates concepts from game theory to explore resource allocation methods, considering both pure and mixed strategies. The study evaluates the impact of these strategies on sectoral resource distribution and product generation. The results suggest that the mixed strategy — combining equitable investments, production multipliers, production equalization, and externalities — generates a relatively high payoff while promoting a more balanced distribution of resources across sectors. Specifically, each R$ 1.00 invested through the mixed strategy results in a product generation of R$ 1.44. Although preliminary, the study provides a promising methodological foundation that can evolve and contribute to the decision-making process of institutions such as SEPLAG and ADECE. Tipo: Dissertação 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86568 Título: Reflexos econômicos dos cenários eleitorais de 2018 e 2022 sobre o equilíbrio orçamentário e financeiro Autor(es): Meneses Junior, Humberto Bezerra de Abstract: This research investigates the partisan orientation of Brazilian state governments in the 2018 and 2022 elections, specifically analyzing the dichotomy between parties that advocate a more controlled fiscal policy, focusing on austerity, spending restraint, and primary surplus, versus those that adopt a more wasteful or expansionary view of public spending, and whether this has a measurable impact on the conduct of fiscal policy during the respective term. The central question is to analyze whether there is a relationship between the elected party profile, whether it advocates a controlled or expansionary fiscal policy, and the actual conduct of fiscal policy in subsequent years, using electoral and fiscal databases. The data were collected from the SICONFI website and the TSE (Superior Electoral Court). The research gap lies in verifying whether the premise of fiscal control is respected after the election, or whether there is a divergence between discourse and fiscal practice. Using a Tobit model, this study seeks to verify fiscal compliance among state federative units in the 2018 and 2022 elections. The literature indicates that there are political-budgetary cycles, where elected officials tend to alter public spending during election periods, but there are controversies regarding the continuity of fiscal policy post-election. The results showed that political and electoral factors are not as effective given budgetary rigor. No substantial evidence was found that these factors, linked to state elections, were preponderant in relation to the fiscal rigidity imposed by the Fiscal Responsibility Law. These theoretical and methodological contributions broaden the understanding of fiscal management, providing new perspectives and support for future research in the area. Tipo: Dissertação 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z