Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/584 2026-06-17T23:12:43Z 2026-06-17T23:12:43Z Barbosa, Orlei de Oliveira http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86805 2026-06-17T17:31:59Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Título: Desigualdade de renda e crescimento econômico no Nordeste Brasileiro: um estudo quantitativo (2012-2023) Autor(es): Barbosa, Orlei de Oliveira Abstract: This dissertation evaluates the relationship between income distribution inequality and economic development in the states of Northeast Brazil from 2012 to 2023. To estimate the model and test the applicability of the Kuznets relationship in the region, as well as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on income concentration, explanatory variables widely used in the empirical literature are examined. The methodology employed for estimating the proposed model is panel data analysis. The data used in the research were obtained from the Continuous PNAD and the IBGE’s National Accounts System (SNC), and the estimates were carried out using linear regressors through the FGLS method. The empirical results confirm the existence of a Kuznets relationship between growth and inequality in the Northeast region during the period, and that, by 2023, all states were already on the downward-sloping segment of the curve. They also indicate a strong influence of income transfer programs, such as Emergency Aid, in reducing inequality in the region, an effect that was significantly amplified during the pandemic period. Additionally, a positive relationship was found between the average retirement benefit value and the illiteracy rate and the level of inequality, suggesting that increases in this indicator do not necessarily translate into gains in distributive equity. It is expected that the results will provide empirical evidence to support public policies aimed at economic development while ensuring greater social equity in the region. Tipo: Dissertação

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Costa, Antonio Kassyo Monteiro http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86605 2026-06-03T18:54:07Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Título: Ensaios sobre tempo de contratos Autor(es): Costa, Antonio Kassyo Monteiro Abstract: The first proposes a theoretical model that analyzes the problem of designing optimal incentive contracts in continuous time. This thesis consists of two articles. The first proposes a theoretical model that analyzes the problem of designing optimal incentive contracts in continuous time, in order to determine the contract duration, in which a risk-neutral Principal contracts a risk-averse Agent subject. The contract is rigidly defined at the initial moment, including the linear incentive scheme and the contractual horizon. The optimal duration of the contract emerges from the interaction between the intertemporal discount factor and the agent’s participation constraint, with the reservation utility level being the central element of this mechanism, showing that contract continuity is largely determined by the participation conditions required by the Agent at the initial stage of contracting. The second article analyzes the factors associated with variation in contractual outcomes of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), with specific emphasis on contract duration as a central variable of analysis. The investigation focuses on how contractual duration influences the log odds of different outcomes, namely success (concluded) or failure (canceled or distressed). For this purpose, a multinomial logit model is used, suitable for handling categorical dependent variables with multiple categories. The results test the hypothesis that there exists an optimal contract duration, evidenced by the estimated inverted “U” shape, the estimates corroborate the hypothesis for the “U” shape, however, for the canceled status, no statistical significance was found. The hypothesis was also tested using marginal probabilities, and the estimates suggest that the “U” shape exists only for contracts that are technically active. The findings offer relevant contributions to the improvement of contractual design in infrastructure projects, assisting public managers and policymakers in defining more efficient contractual deadlines. Tipo: Tese

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Duarte, José Roberto Lima http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86590 2026-06-03T15:26:46Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Título: Análise dos impactos de choques agregados sobre os setores produtivos da indústria brasileira. Autor(es): Duarte, José Roberto Lima Abstract: This study investigates the effects of aggregate shocks on the productive sectors of the Brazilian industry, using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to capture the dynamic relationships between macroeconomic variables. The analysis is based on data from the IBGE’s Quarterly National Accounts System, which classifies the Brazilian industry into four major sectors: Extractive Industries, Manufacturing Industries, Electricity and Gas Industries, and Construction Industries. This study adopts a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) approach, imposing long-term restrictions to distinguish supply, demand, and external shocks. Subsequently, the estimated shocks are included as exogenous variables in another model to analyze the impact of aggregate disturbances on sectors through impulse-response functions. The estimated models allow for the assessment of shocks’ impacts according to three types of transmission: total impacts, direct impacts, and indirect impacts. The results reveal marked sectoral heterogeneity, especially in the long run. Demand shocks exhibit transitory effects, except in the Construction sector, a finding consistent with the related literature. In contrast, supply shocks generate permanent impacts in most sectors, with the exception of Electricity and Gas. Finally, external shocks stand out for their large magnitudes, although their effects display different signs across the sectors analyzed. Tipo: Dissertação

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z Coelho Filho, Túlio Madson Arruda http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86571 2026-06-02T14:16:40Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Título: Uma proposta de avaliação da gestão dos recursos próprios das Unidades Federativas do Brasil Autor(es): Coelho Filho, Túlio Madson Arruda Abstract: This dissertation aims to analyze the relative efficiency of Brazilian states in converting financial autonomy and investment effort into accumulated growth of own-source revenue in the period from 2021 to 2024. The study is grounded in the context of Brazilian fiscal federalism, characterized by subnational borrowing restrictions, budget rigidity, and high dependence on intergovernmental transfers, in which the main state taxes — ICMS, IPVA and ITCMD — play a central role in fiscal sustainability. Two indicators are constructed: accumulated growth of own-source revenue and financial autonomy, defined as the ratio between own taxes and current expenditures. The descriptive analysis reveals significant heterogeneity among states and a distinction between cyclical revenue growth and structural capacity to finance public spending. Subsequently, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), BCC model oriented to output, is applied, considering financial autonomy and the share of investment in own revenue as inputs, and accumulated revenue growth as output. The results indicate that six states lie on the efficiency frontier in both estimated specifications, while the remaining states show varying degrees of distance from the frontier, suggesting potential room for revenue expansion given their structural conditions. The findings demonstrate that revenue growth alone does not characterize efficiency, requiring joint analysis of structural fiscal conditions and the ability to convert them into revenue performance. Tipo: Dissertação

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