http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/43 2026-08-14T10:43:12Z 2026-08-14T10:43:12Z Bezerra, Filomena Nádia Rodrigues Lemos, José de Jesus Sousa Silva, Vitor Hugo Miro Couto Campos, Kilmer Coelho Mendes, Fernando Antônio Teixeira http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/87478 2026-08-12T19:32:38Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Título: Crédito rural e mitigação climática: evidências do Programa ABC no Brasil Autor(es): Bezerra, Filomena Nádia Rodrigues; Lemos, José de Jesus Sousa; Silva, Vitor Hugo Miro Couto; Campos, Kilmer Coelho; Mendes, Fernando Antônio Teixeira Abstract: Traditional agricultural systems are challenged to reconcile productivity gains with multiple dimensions of sustainability, bringing to the forefront the effects of climate change. In this context, this article aims to measure the impact of the Low-Carbon Agriculture Program (Programa ABC) on the gross agricultural production value per greenhouse gas emission in Brazil. Additionally, it seeks to examine the level of credit distribution provided by this instrument across different Brazilian regions. The synthetic control method was employed for this purpose. The results showed that the impact of the ABC Program, measured by the gap between the treated unit (Brazil) and its synthetic control (Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, the United States, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and Thailand), during the intervention period (2010–2019), exhibited a positive effect on the analyzed indicator. It is evident that there was a concentration of rural credit allocation in the Center-West and Southeast regions, which received around 31.37% and 29.65%, respectively. In summary, climate policy design should prioritize farmers’ technical training and the dissemination of conservation, mitigation, and adaptation practices in regions that are most vulnerable to climate impacts. Tipo: Artigo de Periódico

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Frota, Marisa Guilherme da Lemos, José de Jesus de Sousa Ozaki, Vitor Augusto Duarte, Gislaine Vieira http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86827 2026-06-18T18:38:37Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Título: Capacidade de recuperação e desempenho das culturas alimentares no MATOPIBA: Impactos e desafios. Autor(es): Frota, Marisa Guilherme da; Lemos, José de Jesus de Sousa; Ozaki, Vitor Augusto; Duarte, Gislaine Vieira Abstract: This study sought to evaluate the recovery capacity of food crops (rice, beans, cassava, and corn) in the MATOPIBA region. The cultivation of rice, beans, and cassava largely originates from family farming, which plays a crucial role in feeding the population and supplying the local market. Additionally, it is essential for job creation, income generation, and, most importantly, maintaining food security. To assess the recovery capacity of these crops, an Agricultural Resilience Index was con-structed for each crop and state during the period from 2002 to 2021. The results show that the states of Maranhão and Bahia exhibited a downward trend in resilience for the cultivation of rice, beans, and cassava. The state of Tocantins stands out as the only state showing an upward trend in recovery capacity for all crops. Regarding corn and soybean cultivation across the four states, a growing trend in recovery capacity was observed. Tipo: Artigo de Periódico

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Tabosa, Francisco José Silva Penna, Christiano Modesto Barreto, Flavio Ataliba Flexa Daltro http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86809 2026-06-17T17:58:30Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Título: Elasticidades dinâmicas do investimento no crescimento da economia cearense: Uma análise do período 2003-2019. Autor(es): Tabosa, Francisco José Silva; Penna, Christiano Modesto; Barreto, Flavio Ataliba Flexa Daltro Abstract: The main objective of this study was to analyze the sensitivity of Ceará’s economy to public and private investments in the state, and to estimate their respective dynamic elasticities in the period from 2003 to 2019. The econometric methodology used followed Bierens and Martins (2010), who modeled vectors of time-variant cointegration through the introduction of Chebyshev time polynomials. The results showed that both the elasticity of public and private investment is positive. That is, theinvestments provided economic growth in the state of Ceará. However, the impact of public investments in more efficient in the growt of Ceará´s economy than the private sector. The interaction between public and private investments, on the other hand, show increasing returns to scale until 2016 Tipo: Artigo de Periódico

2026-01-01T00:00:00Z Lemos, José de Jesus Sousa Araújo, Francisco Nilson Silva Almeida, Fernando Marciano de Paiva, Elizama Cavalcante de Sousa, Erika Costa http://repositorio.ufc.br/handle/riufc/86775 2026-06-16T12:53:12Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00Z

Título: Previsão de emissões de gases do efeito estufa (GEE) pelo setor agrícola do Estado do Piauí, Brasil Autor(es): Lemos, José de Jesus Sousa; Araújo, Francisco Nilson Silva; Almeida, Fernando Marciano de; Paiva, Elizama Cavalcante de; Sousa, Erika Costa Abstract: This study aims to predict the evolution of average greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the state of Piauí, based on the 242 municipalities of the state, as well as: 1 -estimate the descriptive statistics associated with GHG emissions and average annual rainfall observed in the state of Piauí in the period from 1973 to 2023; 2 -create a model that is capable of predicting the trajectory of average greenhouse gas emissions that are aggregated from the emissions observed in the municipalities annually between1973 and 2023; 3 -hierarchize, in ascending order of GHG emissions, the municipalities of Piauí and divide them into quintiles, to evaluate the average behavior of emissions and rainfall in each quintile. The study's guiding hypothesis is that the 33 municipalities located in the southern part of the state, which are located within the agricultural frontier of MATOPIBA, where agriculture is intensive in the use of machinery, chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and cattle raising, are the largest GHG emitters in the region. The ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model was used to make the predictions. The main evidence from the study showed that there was a significant increase in GHG emissions in the state of Piauí during the analyzed period and that, in accordance with the study's guiding assumption, the municipalities located in the MATOPIBA region had the highest average GHG emissions during the analyzed period. Tipo: Artigo de Periódico

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