Uma análise do sentimento dos empresários brasileiros dos setores de produtos alimentares e metalurgia no período 2002 – 2012

Abstract

From monthly data confidence indexes of food and metallurgy FGV, already seasonally adjusted by the institution itself, this study assesses how the economic instability of the period of 2002 to 2012 impacted these indexes. A sample of 133 observations was selected during that period to these two variables and an autoregressive model was applied with endogenous threshold value aiming to capture regime changes in the dynamics described by the confidence indices mentioned above, as well as describe the stochastic process described by the variables selected. The qualitative indicators for these variables were then calculated and the methodology allowed to investigate the linearity and stationarity of their trajectory, producing results that revealed the following situations for index: i) the index of metallurgy presented a nonlinear dynamic and partial unit root limit endogenous estimated -5.94 percentage points, ii) the index of food presented linear dynamics and stationarity of the series. Together, these findings suggest that the businessman confidence of following food products belonging to the consumer non-cyclic sector was shaken at a lower intensity in the period of economic instability that businessman confidence following the metallurgy products belonging to the sector consumer cyclic. Intuitively it is concluded that by estimating the indices that these segments also suffered impacts of different intensities in the macroeconomic context investigated.