Aplicação do método das matrizes de transição na avaliação das relações entre volume de conservação e de proteção contra as cheias

Abstract

The article presents the evaluation of the probability of exchange between emptying and probability of leakage from the reservoir Castile Piauí, in the state of Piaui, North East Brazil. The reservoir is planned to be operated as multiple reservoir objectives predominating regularizing flows and protection against floods. During the public debates on the construction of the dam several questions were raised, such as: The dam will fill? How often? What will happen if the state of Ceará overestimate the reservoir s in their territories? To evaluate these issues, we attempted to apply the Theory of Stochastic Reservoirs, through the methodology of transition matrices proposed by Fields (1987). The application of the methodology has shown an ability to evaluate the hydrological consequences and alternatives of building the reservoir of Castelo do Piaui. It is the joint use of the experimental method (simulation) and analytical (transition matrices)