Subsídios governamentais e ciclos econômicos nas empresas brasileiras de capital aberto

Abstract

The overall objective of this study is to examine the relationship between the phases of economic cycles and government subsidies recognized by Brazilian publicly traded companies. To achieve this purpose, the research was structured in three chapters. The sample comprises companies with shares traded on the B3 (Brazilian Stock Exchange) between 2010 and 2024, excluding incomplete observations, financial institutions, and outliers. Chapter 2 analyzes the incidence, typology, origin, and amount of subsidies throughout the phases of the cycle, using descriptive statistics. In Chapter 3, from the perspective of contingency theory, sectoral and temporal variations in the recognition of government subsidies are investigated, based on the literature on sectorization, permanence, and trends of incentive policies. Tests of comparison between groups, normality and homogeneity tests, as well as the Cochran-Armitage and Jonckheere-Terpstra tests for temporal trend analysis and Markov Chains were employed. Finally, Chapter 4 explores the effect of the phases of the cycle on the incidence and amount of subsidies, using Logit models and linear panel regressions. The results show that about half of the companies recognized government subsidies in the analyzed period, with stable incidence throughout the phases of the economic cycle. Tax benefits, mostly of federal and state origin, constitute the main incentive mechanism, while the amounts recognized show high asymmetry. The findings also show that strategic sectors maintain stable recognition throughout the cycle, while more sensitive sectors show greater volatility. A growing trend in the incidence and amount of subsidies is also observed, especially in recessionary phases, as well as high persistence in receiving these incentives, suggesting that subsidies assume a long-term character. Econometric analyses reveal that the phases of the economic cycle do not affect the probability of access to subsidies, which is mainly related to internal characteristics of firms. In contrast, the amount recognized reacts countercyclically, with a significant increase during contraction, a reduction during expansion, and maintenance of higher levels during recovery. It is concluded that government subsidies in Brazil act as buffers against economic shocks, preserving the group of companies that benefit, but adjusting the intensity of resources according to the vulnerability imposed by the fluctuations of the economic cycle.