Análise de risco da produção de café sombreado no maciço de Baturité, Ceará

Abstract

Coffee is one of the most traded commodities in the international market, with prominence to the production of specialty coffees. Within this context, coffee in the state of Ceará is particularly relevant for its high quality, as the Baturité Massif regionaccounts for 70% of the state's income, generating employment and local income. The objective is to analyze the profitability of shaded coffee producers in the Baturité Massif, state of Ceará, under deterministic and risk conditions in 2023. The analysis methods are: the analysis of profitability indicators based on parameters of gross income and production costs, and the risk analysis by the Monte Carlo method to estimate the probabilistic distribution of each profitability indicator. The results showed that production has a positive average gross margin, allowing producers to remain in the activity in the short term. The risk analysis showed low risk, and this production is very profitable, as there is a 94% probability that the profit will be higher thanthe sample average.