Formação de clubes de convergência nas emissões agrícolas de gases de efeito estufa: um estudo empírico para o Matopiba

Abstract

The Matopiba region, composed of municipalities in Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia, has undergone considerable and rapid transformations in land-use dynamics over recent decades, mainly due to the expansion of agricultural activities. Given the growth and importance of grain production for the Matopiba region and the way climate change can affect this production, as well as the important role of agriculture in mitigating these climate changes through the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the present study is necessary to evaluate the presence of convergence clubs with respect to GHG emissions originating from the agricultural sector in the Matopiba region. For this purpose, the methodology developed by Phillips and Sul (2007) was used, as it is suitable for this study because it allows the identification of dynamic patterns of behavior among spatial units over time, even when they present distinct initial trajectories. The three scenarios created for this research presented the same results: rejection of the null hypothesis of global convergence and the formation of one convergence club, with no municipality being considered divergent. This means that all municipalities follow the same general trend in the evolution of emissions over time, that is, the municipalities are homogeneous in terms of their emissions trajectory. One possible explanation for this result is the agricultural expansion that has been occurring in the region, causing the productive profile, environmental policies, good management practices, and technologies used to be disseminated throughout the region. Understanding that all municipalities in the Matopiba region belong to the same convergence club is very important for policymakers, since common factors across the entire region will exert the same relative influence on agricultural emissions.