Análise de viabilidade técnico-econômica aplicada à energia eólica offshore

Abstract

The global energy transition and the need to decarbonize power systems have fostered the expan sion of renewable sources, with offshore wind standing out for its high technical potential and strategic relevance. Brazil, particularly the Northeast coast, offers exceptional wind conditions and a broad continental shelf, with potential exceeding 700 GW. This dissertation develops and applies an integrated techno-economic assessment model for offshore wind generation, with a case study in Pecém, Ceará. The methodology combines statistical wind modeling through the Weibull distribution, integration with the power curve of a 10 MW NREL/IEA turbine, calculation of the FCE and AEP, and explicit consideration of transmission losses. The economic evaluation covers LCOE, Net VPL, TIR, and PBd, based on realistic CAPEX, OPEX, and tariff assumptions. Uncertainty analysis is carried out through sensitivity tests and Monte Carlo simula tion. Results indicate FCE between 62% and 66% and AEP between 2,716 and 2,891 GWh/year, ensuring international competitiveness. LCOE ranges from 68 to 117 US$/MWh (P5–P95), with averages of 78–100 US$/MWh, while discounted PBd spans 6–12 years, averaging 7–9.5 years. Probabilistic analysis shows that over 80% of simulations yield LCOE below 100 US$/MWh and Payback around 9 years, confirming project attractiveness even under uncertainty. Offshore wind in Pecém is thus a viable and strategic option for expanding Brazil’s power matrix and integrating into emerging chains such as green hydrogen, providing technical input for policies and methodological advances by unifying deterministic and stochastic analyses.