Sistema monitoramento da transição energética em nível subnacional

Abstract

The contemporary energy transition demands instruments capable of monitoring and guiding energy policy planning actions in the face of growing challenges related to climate change, social inequalities, and environmental pressures. In this context, monitoring systems become essential for producing consistent metrics, continuous monitoring, and territorially sensitive diagnoses. However, studies and monitoring instruments remain concentrated on national analyses, heavily influenced by models that measure the energy transition in countries of the Global North and that generally use arithmetic averages to measure and understand this energy transition, consequently masking internal heterogeneities and inequalities. The energy trilemma is a theoretical model traditionally used to measure the energy transition and aspects of energy justice through three dimensions (energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability). The energy trilemma presents limitations when applied to more decentralized levels, such as the subnational level, which, in the case of Brazil, being a country of continental territorial dimensions, is characterized by territorial asymmetries and socioeconomic and environmental inequalities among the states that make up the Brazilian territory. Given these gaps, this thesis proposes a subnational energy transition monitoring system based on an adaptation of the energy trilemma. By replacing the use of simple averages with a vector representation of the energy trilemma, the monitoring system allows for the identification of the direction, intensity, and structural imbalances between the three dimensions, thus capturing nuances invisible in aggregated methods and offering more contextualized interpretations. In addition to methodological advancement, the approach responds to criticisms found in the literature on energy justice, territorial asymmetry, and multilevel governance by providing an instrument capable of capturing socio-spatial inequalities, revealing tensions between dimensions, and complementing existing gaps in traditional models. The methodology, of a qualitative-quantitative nature, was developed in four integrated stages: (i) theoretical-conceptual review; (ii) construction and validation of indicators; (iii) modeling and definition of the subnational index; and (iv) comparative analyses involving the states of Ceará, Piauí, Bahia, and São Paulo. The results demonstrate the analytical relevance of the approach by highlighting contrasting trajectories in the energy transition: the North and Northeast regions present structural weaknesses in energy equity; the Northeast stands out in energy security due to the high participation of renewable sources; the Central-West and South regions concentrate the best environmental performances; and the Southeast presents consistent results in energy equity. Comparative studies reveal patterns impossible to identify using simple averages, such as Piauí, with high clean energy generation combined with low energy inclusion, and the persistent environmental vulnerabilities in Ceará, Bahia, and São Paulo, even though these regions show advances in energy security or equity. The thesis contributes theoretically by proposing a new approach for measuring the energy transition at the subnational level, through a monitoring system that highlights the limitations of using aggregate averages to capture the complexity of the territorial and dimensional dynamics of the energy transition process. Thus, by demonstrating that analysis based exclusively on averages tends to obscure internal asymmetries between territories and dimensions, the application of a three-dimensional and vector-based monitoring system, adapted to the subnational scale, is capable of refining the understanding of the energy trajectories of Brazilian states. This approach integrates, in a single analytical framework, the dimensions of energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability. In applied terms, the Subnational Level Monitoring System offers public managers an objective and replicable tool to identify territorial imbalances, guide investments, prioritize energy policies, and monitor the temporal evolution of states—expanding the state's capacity to promote a more just and territorially balanced energy transition. As a limitation, the insufficiency of broader historical series and subnational databases for environmental and social indicators stands out, which reduces the analytical sensitivity of the environmental sustainability dimension. Even so, the study achieves its objectives by demonstrating that the vector-based approach represents a methodological and practical advance, contributing to monitoring, interpreting, and guiding a more just, secure, and environmentally responsible energy transition in Brazil.