Alternativas para um grande consumidor no mercado de energia elétrica no Brasil: análise de cenários e viabilidade sob incertezas utilizando modelagem estocástica

Abstract

Many countries worldwide have made efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop environmental, social, and governance (ESG) practices that can guide sustainability-focused investments. Diversifying a country's energy matrix through the incorporation of alternative renewable sources is strongly associated with sustainable development and opportunities for improvements in ESG metrics. Given its abundant natural resources, it is expected that the industry in Brazil will continue to benefit from the growth of the renewable energy sector. Concurrently, the evolution of the Energy Market in Brazil has provided financial possibilities that directly impact key sectors driving the economy. One of the options is the alternative of self-electricity production, which may offer benefits to the consumer. However, due to the complexities of the variables inherent in the electricity sector, it is necessary to analyze existing financial risks. This study aims to present the alternatives offered by the Brazilian electricity market to large electricity consumers and analyze the feasibility and risks for consumer classification in possible scenarios within the Free Contracting Environment (ACL): long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) and possible arrangements within the context of energy self-production, such as self-production through own investment, self-production through equivalence, and self-production through leasing. For the analyzed scenarios, uncertainties, risks, and fluctuations inherent to the factors comprising the characteristics of the Energy Market in Brazil are considered. To achieve this, stochastic characteristics are applied to the variables that most impact the models, aiming to optimize and provide greater support to the consumer for decision-making. Sensitivity analyses and feasibility metrics are applied for comparative purposes between scenarios. For the analyzed situation, it is observed that the most probable Net Present Value (NPV) for the self-production through own investment alternative can result in savings of approximately 32.9% compared to the PPA contract. The most likely discounted payback found was 10.32 years. Furthermore, the observed Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for all scenarios demonstrated feasibility for investment in self- generation. Optimizations are conducted, returning essential values in the decision-making process regarding the contracting of self-production models through equivalence or leasing. While self-generation investment has proven advantageous, given the adopted premises, it is crucial for the investor to assess the impacts of capital expenditure (CAPEX) within the business context, as it represents a potentially relevant value.