Cobrança do ICMS de pessoas físicas: a habitualidade e o volume de atividades como indicadores de intuito comercial

Abstract

This study examines the collection of ICMS from individuals under the hypothesis that transaction frequency and volume may signal commercial intent. The analysis uses microdata on interstate transactions recorded in electronic fiscal documents, aggregated by municipality of destination in Ceará and by state of origin, for the years 2023 and 2024. The central measure is the ratio of DIFAL to net municipal ICMS, interpreted as an indicator of the relative fiscal relevance of the differential tax rate at the local level. The empirical strategy combines descriptive evidence with exploratory spatial data analysis, including the application of the global Moran’s I, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), and conditional models with an examination of the spatial autocorrelation of residuals. The results show that the increase in the number of transactions between 2023 and 2024 was not matched, to the same extent, by an expansion in aggregate DIFAL, making an interpretation based solely on absolute values insufficient. The spatial analysis reveals that the relative incidence of DIFAL is not randomly distributed across the territory of Ceará, but instead displays localized concentration patterns, especially clusters of high relative incidence along the western coast, in the northwestern portion of the state, and in the Ibiapaba region. The conditional models show that part of this territorial configuration is associated with observable municipal attributes. Even so, the persistence of spatial autocorrelation in the residuals indicates that these factors explain only part of the distribution of DIFAL/ICMS (%). It is concluded that the relative incidence of DIFAL in Ceará follows a discernible territorial organization and that incorporating the spatial dimension improves the analytical precision of the interpretation of the phenomenon.