Análise da poupança corrente nos Estados Brasileiros no período entre 2015 e 2023

Abstract

This study analyzes the determinants of the Current Savings of Brazilian states from 2015 to 2023, with emphasis on the socioeconomic, institutional, and political variables that influence subnational fiscal sustainability. The empirical strategy is based on a dynamic panel model estimated through the System GMM method, which allows for the control of endogeneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and the temporal persistence of the dependent variable. The results reveal a high level of inertia in Current Savings, with a negative and statistically significant effect of household income and a positive impact of education levels. The COVID-19 pandemic dummy had a significant negative effect, indicating an improvement in the indicator—likely driven by extraordinary federal transfers. Variables such as population density, political alignment, electoral cycles, and participation in the Fiscal Adjustment Program (PAF) were not statistically significant. The findings underscore the importance of balanced and adaptable fiscal policies, and suggest future research on the medium-term fiscal effects of external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic.