Uma proposta de avaliação das operações de crédito no âmbito da Prefeitura Municipal de Fortaleza sob a ótica do serviço da dívida pública no período de 2013 a 2024

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the cost and risk associated with credit operations contracted by the Municipality of Fortaleza between 2013 and 2024, considering fiscal sustainability parameters established by current legislation, particularly the Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF) and Federal Senate Resolution No. 43/2001. The research examines how the dynamics of credit operations influenced the trajectory of Contracted Debt in proportion to Net Current Revenue (RCL), and identifies the macroeconomic and institutional factors that shaped the municipality’s indebtedness over the analyzed period. The methodological approach is based on econometric estimation using Generalized Least Squares (GLS), with robust variance correction through the Newey-West (1987) procedure. The empirical analysis employed quadrimester series covering contracted debt, credit operations, exchange rate, Selic interest rate, debt service, and net current revenue, obtained from official sources such as the Fiscal Management Reports (RGF), Summarized Budget Execution Reports (RREO), the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB), and the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA). The results indicate that credit operations were the main determinant of the expansion in municipal debt, while the exchange rate significantly influenced the debt trajectory, particularly in contracts denominated or indexed in foreign currency. Conversely, the Selic rate and past debt service levels did not present statistical significance. A structural shift was also identified beginning in 2019. The findings suggest that the recent debt trajectory reflects a combination of active financing strategy, exposure to external macroeconomic conditions, and a redefinition of the municipal investment regime. Future fiscal sustainability will depend on prudent credit portfolio management, mitigation of exchange rate risks, and maintaining the balance between investment capacity and fiscal responsibility.