H2Calculator: uma ferramente computacional para análise de sensibilidade e viabilidade econômica da produção de hidrogênio renovável conectada à rede elétrica

Abstract

Climate change and the pursuit of decarbonization have received increasing attention, as economic growth can generate significant environmental impacts. In this context, renewable hydrogen emerges as a strategic energy vector, fundamental for the decarbonization of several productive sectors. Renewable hydrogen presents broad applicability, and Brazil, particularly the state of Ceará, has high potential for projects in this area due to its vast availability of renewable resources. However, the feasibility of these ventures critically depends on techno-economic aspects rather than solely on natural

factors. Nevertheless, there is a lack of tools capable of providing parameterized economic analyses. In this context, this study aims to propose the H2Calculator, a computational tool developed in Python, designed for preliminary financial analysis in the prospecting of hydrogen production projects connected to the power grid. The tool incorporates electrolysis costs (PEM and alkaline technologies), water supply options (CAGECE, COGERH, and desalinated water), and electricity acquisition in the Free Contracting Environment (ACL), allowing the determination of indicators such as the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH), Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and discounted payback for the evaluated project. Ten distinct scenarios were simulated using the H2Calculator, four of which were analyzed in detail. In the reference scenario, with an annual production of 1.000.000 kg of H2, PEM technology, water supplied by CAGECE, and an electricity purchase tariff of R$ 163,43/MWh, an LCOH of R$ 23,94/kg was obtained, with a payback period of 23,8 years, as well as positive NPV and IRR values. Comparative analysis among the remaining scenarios revealed that electricity costs are the most influential factor in the LCOH composition, followed by the electrolyzer CAPEX, while water costs had a marginal impact. The model’s consistency was validated through comparison with reference studies. Thus, the H2Calculator is established as a valuable instrument to support decision-making and promote investment in renewable hydrogen.