Análise fiscal e espacial da isenção de ITBI para o Programa Minha Casa, Minha Vida em Fortaleza

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the fiscal and socio-spatial impacts of the Real Estate Transfer Tax (ITBI) exemption policy granted by the municipality of Fortaleza to beneficiaries of housing programs such as Minha Casa, Minha Vida (PMCMV) from 2020 to 2024. Based on the premise that housing is a constitutional social right, the study analyzes the trade-off between the need for tax waivers to facilitate access to homeownership and the challenges of promoting orderly urban growth without compromising fiscal sustainability through a potential abrupt drop in revenue. The research adopts an approach structured around three strategies: (i) simulation of counterfactual scenarios to measure the trajectory of tax expenditure; (ii) spatial analysis via geoprocessing to investigate the territorial distribution of benefits and assess whether there are signs of compromising orderly spatial growth; and (iii) an empirical exercise with time series econometric modeling via Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Cointegration, which allowed for the investigation of the relationship between ITBI revenue and the tax waiver associated with the incentive, as well as evaluating any potential impairment of ITBI collection resulting from the granted benefits. The results suggest that the fiscal policy generated growing tax expenditure driven by the expansion of the benefit to higher income brackets; however, the spatial analysis revealed a paradox: although socially focused, the policy proved to be spatially concentrative, with approximately 70% of beneficiaries located in just 10 peripheral neighborhoods—notably Mondubim, Cajazeiras, and Sapiranga/Coité—evidencing a reinforcement of the logic of peripheralization and urban segregation. The results do not indicate a compromise of fiscal sustainability arising from the policy during the period, as there is evidence of cointegration between effective and potential ITBI revenue; nevertheless, the study issues a management warning due to signs of a revenue saturation trend vis-à-vis the acceleration of granted tax benefits. It is concluded that the exemption fulfilled its role in fostering the exercise of the Fundamental Right to decent housing but requires continuous monitoring for potential adjustments, such as the recent Supplementary Law No. 434/2025, which establishes limits to the benefit based on both income and the requirement of owning a single property in the city.