Reforma tributária e o fim dos incentivos fiscais unilaterais: impactos nos Estados do Nordeste e Sudeste do Brasil (2015-2024)

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the relationship between the Fiscal Exposure Indicator (IEF)— defined as the ratio of ICMS tax waivers to Net Current Revenue (RCL)—and the attractiveness of new businesses in thirteen states in Brazil’s Northeast and Southeast between 2015 and 2024. Using a state–year panel, fixed-effects models are estimated with time dummies and regional interaction terms. The results indicate a positive but statistically insignificant association between IEF and short-term firm entry. When structural trends that capture heterogeneity across states are incorporated, this relationship weakens, showing that determinants such as logistics, human capital, and the business environment play a predominant role in long-run attractiveness. The analysis reveals greater sensitivity to the tax reform transition in states with relatively high fiscal exposure, especially those that have historically used ICMS tax waivers as a compensatory instrument in the face of infrastructure and competitiveness bottlenecks. Robustness checks with clustered standard errors and outlier treatment confirm the consistency of the estimates. The study concludes that the end of ICMS-based tax competition, imposed by Constitutional Amendment No. 132/2023, requires a reorientation of state policies toward productive fundamentals and cooperative federalism as the pillars of sustainable regional development.