Produção agropecuária em transformação: mudanças climáticas e uso da terra no Brasil

Abstract

In recent decades, climate change has become one of the main global challenges, directly affecting agricultural productivity and food security. In Brazil, this scenario is aggravated by intense land-use transformations, which rank among the main drivers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, positioning the agricultural sector as one of the country’s largest emitters. In this context, the general objective of this research is to assess the effects of climate and land-use changes on the gross value of agricultural production (VBV) and livestock production (VBP) per unit of CO₂ in Brazil between 1985 and 2023. Specifically, the study aims to: (i) analyze the evolution of GHG emissions, VBV, and VBP across Brazilian states; (ii) rank the federative units according to their VBV and VBP; and (iii) measure the effects of climatic variables and the influence of land-use changes on VBV/CO₂ and VBP/CO₂ in the Brazilian states between 1985 and 2023. Data were collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), MapBiomas, the Greenhouse Gas Emission Estimates System (SEEG), and the Climate Change Knowledge Portal – ERA5 (Copernicus Climate Change Service – C3S), and applied to panel data models. Among the main results, it was found that the states with the highest VBV values were located in the Southeast (SP, MG), Center-West (GO, MT, MS), South (PR, RS, SC), Northeast (BA), and North (PA) regions. In turn, the states with the highest VBP values were in the Southeast (MG, SP), South (PR, RS, SC), Center-West (GO), Northeast (BA, PE, CE), and North (RO) regions. In the fixed-effects model, a 1% increase in the pasture ratio was associated with an approximate rise of 0.37% in VBV/CO₂ and 0.36% in VBP/CO₂, respectively, suggesting that either the conversion of these areas or their productive intensification may be contributing positively. However, this result also points to a possible intensification of land use, with potential environmental implications. Quantitatively, a 1% increase in temperature was associated, on average, with an increase of 22.23% in VBV/CO₂ and 18.60% in VBP/CO₂. Nonetheless, it is important to note that this impact may not be uniform across regions and agricultural activities. Finally, statistically robust evidence was lso found for harvested area, with a 0.17% increase in VBV/CO₂, as well as for cattle herd size, where a 1% rise in livestock numbers tends to increase VBP/CO₂ by 0.09%.