Eficiência dos incentivos fiscais do FDI em relação a indicadores socioeconômicos dos municípios cearenses (2015 - 2020): uma avaliação pelo método DEA (Análise Envoltória de Dados)

Abstract

This study evaluates the technical efficiency of 32 municipalities in Ceará, Brazil, in using tax incentives from the Industrial Development Fund (FDI) between 2015 and 2020. The objective is to assess to what extent FDI resources have contributed to local economic and social development. The research addresses the complexity of fiscal policy and the need to monitor the effectiveness of tax benefits, particularly in regions facing structural inequalities. Data sources include IBGE, RAIS, FINBRA/STN, and ADECE, covering information on investment, tax revenue, and the labor market. The methodology employed was Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), applied through input- and output-oriented models, as well as a per capita version to control demographic effects. Results indicate that only Fortaleza, General Sampaio, and Sobral achieved full efficiency, serving as benchmarks. The average efficiency score was 0.21 (input) and 0.25 (output), revealing significant inefficiency and suggesting that municipalities could reduce up to 79% of investments or maximize outcomes with existing resources. In the per capita model, the average increased to 0.84, reducing disparities, but still highlighting differences related to local governance and productive structures. The analysis underscores the heterogeneity in resource allocation capacity and points to the need for improvements in public management and incentive policies to ensure more equitable and sustainable socioeconomic impacts.