Eficiência judicial nas demandas de saúde pública: evidências empíricas do Ceará (2020–2025)

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants and temporal dynamics of judicial productivity in health-related cases in Brazil by estimating stochastic frontier models (BC92 and BC95) using administrative data from the CNJ covering the period from January 2020 to September 2025. The analysis examines how operational factors, such as new case inflows, pending workloads, congestion rates, and pandemic-related disruptions, shape judicial output in the context of increasing health litigation. The BC92 model, which assumes time-invariant inefficiency, indicates that pending cases exert the strongest positive influence on judicial productivity, while congestion rates significantly reduce courts’ ability to produce decisions. The BC95 model incorporates time-varying inefficiency, offering superior statistical fit and revealing an upward trajectory of efficiency over time, particularly following digital transformations adopted during and after the pandemic. Descriptive analyses based on efficiency distributions, heatmaps, and inter-period comparisons confirm a consistent improvement across all court units, with federal courts exhibiting faster adaptation. Overall, the findings demonstrate that judicial responsiveness to health litigation is strongly conditioned by structural bottlenecks and accumulated workloads, but that efficiency gains are achievable through technological and organizational innovations. The study highlights the importance of incorporating temporal dynamics in judicial efficiency assessments and provides evidence-based insights to support institutional reforms and policy design related to the management of health-related judicial demands.