Índice de criminalidade municipal: construção e análise de um índice composto a partir de indicadores criminais

Abstract

The Municipal Crime Index developed and presented in this study aims to measure and monitor the level of criminality across the 184 municipalities of Ceará over time. It draws on the concept of the Municipal Development Index calculated by the Institute for Research and Economic Strategy of Ceará. Crime indicators were organized into dimensions according to the characteristics of the victims, resulting in dimensional subindices and a global composite crime index. Standardization took into account the polarity of the indicators, and the resulting values were aggregated using the simple geometric mean for the dimensions, followed by the geometric mean for calculating the global composite crime index. The scale was inverted to facilitate the interpretation of the sub-indices and the global index, where values close to zero indicate municipalities with lower crime incidence, and values close to one indicate municipalities with higher crime occurrence. The classification of municipalities was carried out in ranges defined using the Jenks natural breaks method, with subsequent adjustment to rounded cut-off points. The results presented in this study cover the years 2021 to 2024, highlighting the temporal evolution of Ceará’s municipalities during this period, enabling detailed analyses and comparisons over time, and allowing for the identification of whether municipalities are progressing or regressing in their performance. Furthermore, through heat maps, it is possible to identify regional patterns, which can assist public managers in formulating more targeted public security strategies.