Sustentabilidade previdenciária em debate: desafios intergeracionais, projeções atuariais e auditoria para a eficiência fiscal

Abstract

Pension sustainability has consolidated as one of the major global concerns and takes on particularly serious contours in Brazil, where the Regimes Próprios de Previdência Social (RPPS – Own Social Security Schemes) accumulate recurring deficits and structural weaknesses that threaten their long-term solvency. Among the factors placing pressure on these schemes are population aging, the low contributory capacity of states and municipalities, and the absence of consistent mechanisms of control and auditing. These challenges do not stem merely from conjunctural shortcomings but reveal a complex structural dynamic, in which demographic, economic, institutional, and behavioral variables interact. The specialized literature indicates that parametric reforms—such as raising the minimum retirement age, increasing contribution rates, or extending the benefit calculation period—offer temporary relief but do not alter the structural foundations of imbalance. International experiences demonstrate that such measures, when adopted in isolation, merely postpone problems without ensuring intergenerational solvency (Córdoba-Bueno; Fernández-Avilés; García-Centeno, 2016; Díaz-Giménez; Díaz-Saavedra, 2009). This occurs because they fail to fully account for the interaction between individual retirement behavior, labor market dynamics, population aging, and the institutional design of rules. Thus, pension sustainability must be understood as a multidimensional phenomenon that requires integrated approaches. On the economic level, declining fertility and rising life expectancy alter the dependency ratio between contributors and beneficiaries, demanding more adaptive public policies (Mesquita; Balbinotto Neto, 2013). On the actuarial level, growing longevity requires constant revisions of biometric assumptions and eligibility rules to balance revenues and expenditures (Fernandes, 2020). On the financial level, there is a clear need for management mechanisms that ensure liquidity, predictability, and transparency, strengthening trust among insured people and reducing risks of mismanagement (Caetano, 2008). The analysis cannot be restricted to technical aspects: it also involves governance, redistribution, and intergenerational justice. Studies such as those by Galiani, Gertler and Bando (2014) highlight the redistributive potential of well-structured systems, while Esping-Andersen (1990) and Mesa-Lago (2014) emphasize pensions as a central component of welfare state regimes. In Brazil, the weaknesses of the RPPS are accentuated by regional heterogeneity, persistent informality, and fiscal constraints that limit the financing capacity of subnational entities. It is within this context that the present thesis is situated. It argues that pension sustainability will not be ensured by isolated or episodic measures, but only by a technical-institutional architecture capable of integrating actuarial projections, fiscal simulations, and permanent mechanisms of auditing and governance. This conception directly aligns with SDG 16 of the 2030 Agenda (UN, 2015), by emphasizing the need for effective, transparent, and accountable institutions that strengthen public trust and promote intergenerational justice. It is argued that public pensions must be conceived as long-term policy, anchored in three inseparable pillars: actuarial predictability, fiscal responsibility, and intergenerational justice. The general objective of the research was to analyze how to face the challenges of sustainability through the integration of these three pillars. Methodologically, the thesis is structured into three articles: (i) a systematic review of the international literature, mapping the diversity of approaches to the subject; (ii) an applied econometric analysis projecting the Net Current Revenue (RCL) of Brazilian states through the Koyck model, highlighting the growing fiscal burden of the RPPS; and (iii) the proposition of an actuarial and financial auditing framework, inspired by the experience of the Court of Accounts of the State of Ceará (TCE/CE), conceived as a practical tool to strengthen governance at the subnational level. The conclusions corroborate the defended hypothesis: at the theoretical level, convergence was identified around the need to integrate actuarial, fiscal, and institutional variables; at the empirical level, it was demonstrated that the budgetary rigidity of states tends to intensify until 2075 if structural measures are not implemented; and at the propositional level, the feasibility of a model of auditing capable of articulating governance, oversight, and transparency was confirmed. The thesis concludes that the viability of the RPPS depends less on isolated parametric reforms and more on robust pension governance, supported by technical diagnoses and permanent institutional control mechanisms. By combining diagnosis, empirical analysis, and practical proposal, the study contributes both to literature and to the strengthening of public policies, advocating a path that integrates actuarial predictability, fiscal responsibility, and intergenerational justice, in line with the principles of SDG 16 of building more effective and resilient institutions.