Qualidade educacional, crescimento econômico e dívida pública nos municípios nordestinos

Abstract

This study analyzed the determinants of educational performance in municipalities in northeastern Brazil, measured by the Basic Education Development Index (IDEB) for final years, using a fixed-effects regression model. Results indicate that performance in the initial years strongly predicts subsequent educational success. Municipal debt, expressed as a percentage of net current revenue, negatively impacts IDEB, highlighting the importance of fiscal health for education quality. counterintuitively, real education expenditure and per capita GDP showed negative effects, suggesting possible inefficiencies in resource allocation and the complex relationship between economic and educational factors. Class size was positively associated with performance, indicating the need for further investigation of this relationship. The Hausman test confirmed the suitability of the fixed-effects model for this study. The findings emphasize the importance of public policies that combine fiscal control, efficient investments, and attention to quality from early schooling stages to improve educational outcomes.