Indicadores de sustentabilidade fiscal: análise comparativa e projeções dos estados brasileiros (2015-2023)

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the fiscal sustainability of Brazilian states from 2015 to 2023 using the methodology proposed by Blanchard (1990). To do so, two main indicators were analyzed: the fiscal sustainability indicator, which compares actual taxation with the level necessary to stabilize public debt, and the fiscal gap indicator, which incorporates future projections of state public expenditures. In the initial years of the analyzed period (2016-2019), both indicators displayed relatively aligned trajectories, suggesting controlled fiscal sustainability among the states. However, from 2020 onward, a growing divergence was observed, indicating that short term fiscal adjustments did not necessarily guarantee future equilibrium. Persistently unfavorable results in the fiscal gap indicator suggest significant future fiscal risks for some states, necessitating more restrictive fiscal policies to prevent financial crises and promote structural equilibrium between revenue collection and expenditures. States such as Rio de Janeiro and Piauí demonstrated significant instability, alternating between periods of fiscal adjustment and deterioration of public accounts. The North and Southeast regions showed higher fiscal variability, notably in Amapá and Rio de Janeiro, while the South and Central West regions exhibited more stable patterns. Thus, this study underscores the continuous importance of monitoring fiscal sustainability and the implementation of proactive, structural fiscal policies to ensure long-term solvency and sustainable economic development.