Análise do custo do ciclo de vida em rodovias federais do estado do Ceará

Abstract

The road sector plays a significant role in Brazil's transportation matrix, accounting for the majority of cargo and passenger movement in the country. However, Brazilian road infrastructure faces challenges in terms of planning, design, execution, and maintenance, leading to the rapid deterioration of pavements. As a result, as the condition of the highways worsens, the costs associated with maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) strategies increase. Therefore, it becomes necessary for road agencies to adopt tools and approaches that facilitate effective decision-making regarding M&R strategies and their respective costs. In this context, the aim of this study is to assess whether rational M&R strategies for federal highways in the state of Ceará can be established based on Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA), and their functional condition. The research was developed using data from the Global Gravity Index (IGG), provided by the National Department of Transportation Infrastructure (DNIT), covering the three main federal highways in the state of Ceará (BR-222, BR-116, BR-020), for the period from 2014 to 2022. To analyze these data, software such as Microsoft Excel® and R version 4.2.2 were used, allowing for descriptive analyses including measures of central tendency, dispersion, graphical analyses, and also, the division of homogeneous segments of the IGG. For the LCCA, a IGG forecasting model was developed to assess the condition of the highways over various time periods. In addition, decision trees specific to each IGG classification were created, rationalizing the selection of M&R strategies. Three scenarios with a twenty-year operation period were formulated to evaluate the performance of the highways in the absence of M&R strategies. In all three scenarios, it was considered that the highways would remain free of any M&R strategies over 5, 10, and 20 years, with the M&R costs for each scenario based on the DNIT's Referential Cost System for Construction (SICRO) for the years 2017 to 2022, using the OrçaFascio online platform. Subsequently, the Net Present Value (NPV) and the Uniform Annual Equivalent Value (UAEV) were calculated for each homogeneous segment in the three proposed scenarios. The results show that the variation coefficients (CV) demonstrate significant heterogeneity in the IGG classifications along the segments of the three highways, suggesting variability in pavement conditions. It was observed that the three studied highways showed progressive deterioration in their functional quality. Regarding the projected scenarios, the highways showed a trend of worsening in the functional classification of their segments, with an increase in the IGG over time, especially in Scenario 1, which encompasses the first five years of analysis. The projections indicate a worsening in the conditions of the highways by the year 2042, with an increase in segments classified as poor. Furthermore, the research showed the M&R cost estimates for the three scenarios, highlighting a considerable growth in the total cost required for M&R as the years advance, emphasizing the importance of preventive and corrective interventions to avoid the rapid degradation of the highways. It is concluded that in the initial years, 2014 and 2015, it was possible to identify better functional conditions and that the year 2022 records the worst performance on the three highways. The scenarios demonstrate that the lack of M&R leads to the predominance of poor and very poor conditions on the highways, with very high M&R costs. Finally, the adoption of an IGG forecasting model and the use of a decision tree to evaluate M&R strategies based on the current conditions of the segments proved to be effective in optimizing the selection of these strategies, demonstrating the efficacy of using LCCA.