Fatores determinantes da taxa de juros e seus efeitos no Brasil - uma análise histórica

Abstract

The present study aims to investigate the factors that determine changes in the Brazilian interest rate, focusing on the analysis period from 2002 to 2023. The ARDL model, which is a robust econometric approach for analyzing the long-term relationship between variables, was used for this purpose. This technique takes into account both the short-term dynamics and the cointegration relationship among the time series. The data used in this study were extracted from the Central Bank's databases. According to the results obtained, it was found that an increase in the money supply is associated with a reduction in the interest rate, which aligns with the recent low growth of the Brazilian economy. In the short term, there is a positive impact on the interest rate in response to increases in the inflation rate and economic activity, leading to an increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In the long term, the variables, except for the exchange rate, maintained similar results to those observed in the short term. Given this presented evidence and the importance of this topic for the country's monetary policy, it is suggested for future studies to assess the impacts of financial crises, such as those that occurred in Brazil in 2014 and 2015, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic, on the longterm trajectory of the economy's interest rate.