Análise de investimento e risco de um projeto de loteamento no estado do Ceará

Abstract

The region of São Gonçalo do Amarante - CE lives a great expectation of population growth due to industrial investments in its surroundings. The present project is an attempt to study the economic viability and the risks related to a project of allotment in the region. Cost information and presumed sales scenarios for the formation of cash flows of the project were gathered, the cost of capital, the minimum rate of return required by management, was determined by them. Investment analysis techniques were used, emphasizing the uncertain characteristics of the project in relationship to its variables, dare fore performing sensitivity and scenario analysis. The results of the analysis were positive, the scenario considered moderate generated an NPV of R$799.275,11 and an IRR of 27,91% per year, while the optimistic and pessimistic scenario generated, respectively, an NPV of R$1.539.824,00 and -R$644.946,91 and IRR of 38,26% and 14,15%. Sensitivity analysis showed the importance of sales velocity in relationship to other variables. Considering the sales velocity of the best scenario in the realistic scenario improved the NPV by more than R$512.153,85 and the IRR by more than 6,66%. With the obtained results, it can be said that the project has economic viability if its expectations is not completely frustrated.