O impacto dos investimentos em infraestrutura e equipamentos na evolução da dívida pública nos estados do Nordeste (2013-2023)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of public investments in infrastructure ("Works and Installations") and capital goods ("Equipment and Permanent Material") on the evolution of public debt in the Northeastern states of Brazil from 2013 to 2023. Using panel data regression techniques, the analysis focused on the effects of these investments on the variation of debt service costs at the state level. The results indicate that investments in works and installations have a positive and statistically significant impact on public debt, suggesting that large infrastructure projects contribute to the increase in state indebtedness. In contrast, investments in equipment and permanent materials did not show a significant effect on debt dynamics. The study also identified the influence of macroeconomic factors, such as the economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, on the trajectory of state debt in the region. These findings highlight the importance of responsible fiscal management that balances the need for infrastructure investments with the financial sustainability of states, emphasizing the necessity of rigorous planning to avoid excessive burdens on public accounts.