Expectativas inflacionárias no regime de metas de inflação: Uma análise do caso brasileiro

Abstract

The present work aims to identify the existing relations between the theory of the binomial reputation-credibility of the Monetary Authority and the inflationary expectations under the Inflation Target in Brazil. To achieve this objective was an analysis of the behavior of the credibility of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB), that is, how much market agents believe that the goal pursued by BCB can be achieved. It was used two indexes based on the inflation expectations data of market agents to analyze the links established by reputation-credibility in the system of Inflation Targets. The first index aims to measure credibility and the second index aims to analyze the degree of dispersion of expectations. Analysis of the results was subsequently analyzed. In the end, it was concluded that the proposed objectives were satisfied as well as the hypothesis.