Ciclos econômicos internacionais: uma análise da conectividade dos ciclos entre grupo de países.

Abstract

The present thesis consists of three essays that aim to analyze the cyclical behavior and transmission of cycles among countries. In the first essay, the characterization of definitions and concepts of economic cycles from different perspectives of economic thought was sought, with an emphasis on real business cycles. To achieve this objective, cyclical conceptualizations were examined from classical to real business cycle theorists. After this brief explanation of economic cycles, we move on to the second article, where the objective was to analyze the connectivity of economic shocks between G6 countries and BRICS members. An extended vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used, and Generalized Variance Decomposition (GVD) was employed to measure the degree of connectivity between the countries of these two blocs, using Total Factor Productivity (TFP) as the indicator. However, the effects of shocks were estimated after discounting the shocks in international oil prices, in order to obtain the free effect of this supply shock. The results indicated Japan and the United States as the major transmitters of shocks, with the United Kingdom and Germany also propagating shocks but to a lesser extent. On the side of the BRICS, all countries were receivers of shocks. In the third article, the same methodology as the second one was used to measure the connectivity of shocks among Latin American countries. The effects of transmitting countries from the G6 and oil price shocks were controlled. The results indicate little integration among Latin American countries, and this integration decreased with the process of economic globalization in the 1990s.