Desmatamento e conformidade ao código florestal brasileiro: O impacto do cadastro ambiental rural nas fronteiras agrícolas do centro-oeste e do matopiba

Abstract

Deforestation is one of the primary human activities with detrimental effects on the environment, contributing to biodiversity loss and climate change. In Brazil, the expansion of agricultural frontiers has been driven by advancements in agricultural research and rural credit, positioning the country as one of the leading exporters of commodities such as corn and soybeans. However, this economic growth has come at an environmental cost, particularly in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. These biomes encompass two major agricultural frontiers: the Central-West and Matopiba regions, where extensive areas are allocated for pasture and grain production. The acceleration of deforestation has raised significant societal concerns, leading to the establishment of the Brazilian Forest Code (CF), which introduced measures to preserve native vegetation areas. Among these measures, the requirement for maintaining a percentage of Legal Reserve within rural properties and the implementation of the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) in 2014 stand out, with CAR registration becoming mandatory for all rural properties. In this context, this dissertation aims to assess the impact of CAR on deforestation and compliance with the Forest Code in rural properties located within the agricultural frontiers of the Central-West and Matopiba, considering deforestation data from 2008 to 2023. The study analyzes properties registered between 2014 and 2021 using the Difference-in-Differences method proposed by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021), given that CAR registration occurred at different times for different properties. The findings indicate a reduction in deforestation in rural properties registered in the early years of CAR implementation but an increase in subsequent years. In the agricultural frontiers of the Central-West and Matopiba, a reduction in deforestation was observed for small properties registered in 2016, estimated at 2.27% and 2.48%, respectively. Conversely, there was an increase of 3.40% for small properties and 36.77% for large properties registered in 2020 in the Matopiba frontier. In the Central-West frontier, small properties registered in 2021 also experienced an increase in deforestation by 8.42%. In the balanced event study, the results suggest that the longer the exposure to the treatment, the greater the reduction in deforestation, except for medium-sized properties in Matopiba. Regarding compliance with the Forest Code, a decrease in the probability of compliance was observed for small and medium-sized properties in both agricultural frontiers. These findings underscore the need to revise public policy strategies aimed at the registration and environmental regularization of rural properties. The delay in processing CAR registrations undermines its credibility, allowing deforestation to persist despite monitoring efforts. To mitigate this trend, it is essential to strengthen coordination among federal entities and invest in expanding the teams responsible for reviewing registrations, thereby expediting the process. Regarding environmental regularization, the ICCF can assist in identifying priority properties for the Environmental Regularization Program.