Avaliação do setor elétrico brasileiro na adaptação às metas internacionais sobre mudanças climáticas

Abstract

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between Brazil's electricity sector and its performance in adapting to international discussions aimed at tackling climate change, highlighting the importance of the energy transition in Brazil and its adoption of cleaner sources in the electricity supply. This research begins with a literature review on global climate policies, exploring the evolution of environmental discussions at world conferences over the last 50 years, such as Stockholm-72, ECO-92, Rio+10 and Rio+20, and the various editions of the Conference of the Parties (COP) up to the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement. This repertoire makes it possible to understand expectations about compliance with the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Brazil's position in relation to these commitments. The main objective of this work is to assess the progress of the Brazilian electricity sector towards the energy transition targets for 2030 and 2050 set by the last COP (28) in 2023, which aim to meet the proposals of the Paris Agreement. These targets include the installed capacity of renewable generators and the annual improvement in national energy efficiency. The methodology adopted is a descriptive study with a qualitative and quantitative approach. As a means of analysis, this research compares Brazil's performance with scenarios from the International Energy Agency (IEA), such as Zero Net Emissions by 2050 (NZE), Announced Commitments (APS) and Stated Policies (STEPS), highlighting challenges and opportunities. The results indicated that Brazil is in a comfortable position in terms of installed capacity of electricity generation from renewable sources for the 2030 targets, but with the current projections observed, there is still a lack of incentives to close the ambition gap by 2050. In addition, the data on energy efficiency improvements showed that the country did not show good results compared to other G20 countries, and did not reach the target set by COP-28 once between 2010 and 2022. It is concluded that the country needs to declare more long-term NDCs related to energy transition and short-term NDCs on energy efficiency by 2025. This work seeks to contribute to understanding the complex relationships between energy, climate and international policies, highlighting the need for integrated energy planning that promotes a sustainable and resilient energy transition for Brazil.