Interação da pluviometria com a produção de lavouras alimentares de sequeiro na sub-região Nordestina da Sealba, Brasil

Abstract

The sub-region SEALBA, consisting of municipalities from the states of Sergipe, Alagoas, and Bahia, has been identified as an area with high potential for agricultural production, whose exploitation could bring economic and social benefits, contributing to increased food production, job creation, and income generation for farmers. This sub-region was delimited by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa), based on rainfall volumes above 450 mm from April to September, as well as topographical and soil type aspects. Given these circumstances, the investigation aims to answer the question: - How has the evolution of rainfed agricultural production in the municipalities of Sergipe, Alagoas, and Bahia that are part of SEALBA compared to other municipalities in these states that are not part of this sub-region, from 1974 to 2020? To provide an answer to this inquiry, the research has the following specific objectives: a) assess the differences in rainfall among the municipalities that are part of SEALBA from 1974 to 2020; b) analyze the instabilities of rainfall in the states, as well as the variables that define the production of food crops studied in the research on beans, cassava, and corn; c) verify if there are differences between harvested areas, productivities, and production values of bean, cassava, and corn crops in the municipalities that are part of SEALBA vis-à-vis those that are also located in the states of Sergipe, Alagoas, and Bahia but are not included in the sub-region; d) aggregate the variables that define the productions of these crops into an instrument that evaluates them collectively, in the cluster of states and in each state; e) assess if there are differences measured by this instrument of aggregation of variables among the municipalities of the states of SEALBA, officially recognized as part of the Brazilian semi-arid region and those that are not. To achieve this goal, secondary data were collected from the Automatic Recovery System of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (SIDRA/IBGE) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA). The following analysis methods were employed: Descriptive Statistics, Linear Regression, and Factor Analysis. With a historical series spanning 46 years, from 1974 to 2020, the results indicate that the rainfall in the municipalities of SEALBA is significantly different from those of municipalities that are not part of this subregion, confirming the studies by Embrapa technicians who used this aspect as a criterion. It can be inferred that rainfed crop productions in SEALBA experience significant increases that differentiate municipalities inside and outside of SEALBA. Additionally, the average IPRO production index is higher for the SEALBA sub-region, reinforcing the idea that there are synergies between rainfall, productivities, harvested areas, and prices of rainfed crops.