Covid-19 e seus impactos na economia brasileira: uma análise de equilíbrio geral

Abstract

The present work aims to evaluate the welfare impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazilian economy, combined with the measures implemented to combat the spread of the virus. For this purpose, a dynamic general equilibrium model was constructed in which exposure to the virus is determined by the consumption of public and private goods and the hours worked. Exposure serves as an available time diminisher of the representative agent, associated with the resulting disease. The model has a quarterly period and was calibrated to represent the Brazilian economy at the end of 2019. The welfare impacts of the pandemic are assessed with different vaccination start times, combined with emergency aid, distancing measures and the combination of the two policies. The results found suggest that smaller welfare reductions are associated with the early start of vaccination and emergency aid payments. Despite reducing exposure, the limit imposed by distancing policies is lower than the families' optimal choice, increasing the negative welfare effects.