Busca por padrões nos resultados do segundo turno das eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 2022

Abstract

Since runoff of the brazilian presidential elections of 2014, when the outcome was contested by the losing party, there has been an ongoing debate that goes against the prevailing literature, that is, the voting machines are safe and the process is efficient. Besides the lack of evidence about the violation of the ballots, it’s interesting to explore mechanisms that demonstrate adulterations with the ballots beyond the physical inspections of the devices and the analyses made on their softwares employed in them. To address that, we resort to statistics, aiming to identify patterns that emerges when analyzing the vote distribution, as deviations from the norm maybe evidence of systematic ballots fraud. In this context, we conducted a statistical analysis of the data extracted from the ballots reports available on the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral website for the years of 2014, 2018 and 2022, and the population census of the counties in the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Results of the distributions τ = log(V/(N −V)), where V and N correspond to the total votes cast in a given ballot and the total votes that could be cast in the ballot, respectively, were discussed for capital, states and regions, and compared with presidential elections on the years of 2014, 2018 and 2022.