Análise do comportamento dos preços dos fertilizantes no Brasil - 2018 a 2021

Abstract

Brazil is a major producer and exporter of agricultural commodities, but its low domestic production of fertilizers makes it the fourth largest importer of these inputs in the world, which makes it vulnerable to price instabilities in the face of world events. In this context, this work aims to follow the behavior of fertilizer prices in the period from 2018 to 2021, highlighting the determinants and consequences. Data from the average monthly national prices were used of urea, potassium chloride and monoammonium phosphate fertilizers, obtained through the National Supply Company (CONAB). A comparative analysis was carried out to demonstrate the variation of prices in the studied interval, taking into account indicators such as the dollar index, oil prices, agricultural production, data from fertilizer import, national fertilizer production and freight rate. The results of surveys indicate that Brazil's external dependence on fertilizer exporting countries makes it susceptible to currency fluctuations, the prices of raw materials such as oil, and world political relations, in addition to the law of supply and demand in the market. These factors were significant for fluctuations in fertilizer prices. Therefore, it is essential that measures be taken to minimize external dependence and guarantee inputs to affordable prices, favoring Brazilian agriculture, which is a world reference.