Projeções de precipitação para o século XXI utilizando sistema de classificação hierárquica de modelos: aplicação para o nordeste setentrional brasileiro

Abstract

The global models of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4) are evaluated for the Northern Northeast Brazil (NEB) as the representation of interannual variability and interdecadal precipitation for the period 1901-1999 for the A1B scenario projections. This evaluation is performed using data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and the 20th Century Reanalysis V2 of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was applied the wavelet transform to the data set to detect and analyze existing patterns of variability in the twentieth century. The results suggest that CSIRO_MK3_0_RUN2 and GISS_MODEL_E_R_RUN8 UKMO_HADCM3_RUN1 models reproduced satisfactorily the variability. The models differ on the future NEB rainfall, indicating some positive impacts on annual average of 12% and negative impacts up to 42%.