Identification of correlation between residential water demand and average income using the pool regression model: study case in Fortaleza - Brazil

Abstract

The increase in water consumption was twice as large as the increase in population during the last decades Thus, the uncertainty of water supply capacity is a greater need for efficient water resources management. For this to occur, the decision-making process must have a technical and scientific basis. To assist this process, this study aims to identify any statistical correlation between the various patterns of water consumption with the average income of the population in urban centers. The analysis is done by census tract, using data from the city of Fortaleza (CE) from the application of the multilevel linear regression model. To develop the analysis, monthly data for each census tract 2009 to 2017 were used, according to the IBGE boundaries. At the end of the statistical process, three equations are developed, which relate the intercept coefficients of the equations and the variation in time coefficients with income. In conclusion, the most substantial relationship is found between the average income and the initial value of demand (intercept of the equation). However, it does not present strong dependence on the variation coefficient of the residential water demand, which shows that it is impossible to estimate a relation of demand with the time of each sector from the knowledge of the average sector income.